MotoGP, Bagnaia’s (im) possible dream: Quartararo one step away from the title

Fabio Quartararo was right when he called his second place finish in Austin “the best of his career”. For the French, the most important thing was not that Marquez had won, but that Bagnaia had come home behind him. After Pecco’s two victories in a row in Aragon and Misano, he had to stop this run and he succeeded. Now the title is just a step away and in just three weeks the Yamaha rider could make it his own again at Misano.

With a lead of 52 points and three Grand Prix still outstanding (i.e. 75 points to be won), math is on his side.

Let’s clear up the matter and take a look at his World Cup combinations, the Frenchman can become champion at the next GP in Italy if:

– If Quartararo crosses the finish line before Bagnaia

– If Quartararo is 5th and Bagnaia doesn’t get on the podium

– If Quartararo is 6th and Bagnaia is worse than 4th

– When Quartararo is 7th or worse and Bagnaia is not at least three positions ahead of him

– When Quartararo fails to score and Bagnaia is 15th or worse

– When Quartararo scores with Bagnaia 14th or worse

These are the statistics that do not complicate a comeback for the Ducati rider, but make it almost impossible. “I’m here to make up for my disadvantage compared to Fabio,” Pecco said, as it should be. For him, second place in the table would have to be defended (with Mir 27 points behind), but now is not the right time to think about something like that. But Bagnaia also knows that the outcome of the title race is not in his hands alone. The only way to shorten it would be a zero for Quartararo, but he’s never had one in all of the season.

Nevertheless, it remained a difficult path: If Pecco won, Fabio would still have a 27 point lead in two races. That’s a lot of points.

There is no point in crying over spilled milk and the Italian is well aware of this, knowing where he lost those points that he is now missing. In Mugello with a fall when he was in the lead, in Austria after the restart and in Silverstone when the tires weren’t up to scratch: With these results the rating would be completely different, but history is not written with ifs and buts and certainly no championships will be won either.

“In the end, Quartararo is the one who’s under the most pressure at the moment, he has to think about the championship, I just have to be more competitive, so I’m calmer.” Bagnaia clung to his last hopes after the American race. If it weren’t for the fact that Fabio knows exactly how to keep his nerves in check, which he failed to do last year, and all these points just let him sleep soundly at night.

The only strategy for Pecco is to attack to keep his hopes alive. The more he leaves the championship open, the more the (very low) odds increase. In the worst case, there’s always a rematch next year …